The Three I's Of The Business Cycle - Warren Buffet Instructs Oppenheimer Who In Turn Instructs Me

One of the reasons that I am spending more time working on my new product that I have spoken of before is that there comes a day when those that were late to come to the party flood the market with something which was once a very rarefied item - namely, the self-tying bow tie. Sadly last week I was placed in a difficult position where we decided to no longer stock with one store as they were now selling between 6 to 7 brands of bow ties that we could count. It brought to mind two pieces of wisdom what were imparted to me, one by my trusted confidante and internet spy who goes by the pseudonym Carlos Oppenheimer, the other by a retired Sydney businessman.

Of Innovators, Imitators & Idiots

The first was said to me one evening recently. I explained to Oppenheimer that the bow tie market was beginning to look like the Australian grape glut of the late 90's and early 2000's when the price of grapes per tonne dropped from $2000 to $500 . Suddenly many of those that had planted grapes late in the game and weren't committed to the process had to re-evaluate whether they wished to be vignerons. Oppenheimer then said "well my old friend, that reminds me of what Warren Buffet said about the market place and why things come undone. You see, Buffet said that there are three I's which exemplify the 'natural progression' to how good ideas can go belly up. The first I is the for the Innovators, those that see opportunities that others don't. Then come the Imitators who copy what the Innovators have done. Finally, along come the Idiots. The Idiots see what the Innovators have done and what spoils the Imitators have reaped, and through their avarice they manage to undo the very innovations that the Innovators first set out to achieve."

I gather these were not Buffet's exact words but Oppenheimer's delivery was very effective. It also reminded me of another wonderful expression that was imparted to me by another Sydney businessman who said to me "when pygmies cast tall shadows, the day is well and truly over".

I for one certainly do not mind if you choose to refrain from wearing a bow tie whilst the pre-tied and poor quality late comers take over and know that when you are ready to return to the real thing, we will always be here for you. That is of course if Oppenheimer knows what he's talking about. But given he was quoting Warren Buffet, perhaps we should assume he does.

In the meantime, take note of three wonderful pinks we have in stock. One is a 50 Oz silk twill which comes from England (bottom), the second is a pink silk grenadine styled silk (centre) and the final bow is a half merino and cashmere pink wool bow tie with a contrasting cream grosgrain back. All are available on www.lenoeudpapillon.com